Solar Eclipse Statistics

Fred Espenak

1.1 Statistical Distribution of Solar Eclipse Types

Eclipses of the Sun can only occur during the New Moon phase. It is then possible for the Moon's penumbral, umbral or antumbral shadows to sweep across Earth's surface thereby producing an eclipse. There are four types of solar eclipses:

  1. Partial — Moon's penumbral shadow traverses Earth (umbral and antumbral shadows miss Earth)
  2. Annular - Moon's antumbral shadow traverses Earth (Moon is too far from Earth to cover the entire Sun)
  3. Total - Moon's umbral shadow traverses Earth (Moon is close enough to Earth to cover the entire Sun)
  4. Hybrid - Moon's umbral and antumbral shadows traverse Earth (eclipse appears annular and total along different sections of its path). Hybrid eclipses are also known as annular-total eclipses.

During the 5000-year period from –1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE [1]), Earth will experience 11,898 eclipses of the Sun. The statistical distribution of the four basic eclipse types over this interval is show in Table 1.

Table 1: Distribution of Four Solar Eclipse Types
from –1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Eclipse Type Abbreviation Number
of Eclipses
Percent
All Eclipses - 11898100.0%
Partial P 420035.3%
Annular A 395633.2%
Total T 317326.7%
Hybrid H 5694.8%

All partial eclipses are events in which some portion of the Moon's penumbral shadow passes across Earth's surface. In comparison all annular, total and hybrid eclipses can be characterized as events in which some portion of the Moon's umbral and/or antumbral shadow crosses Earth.

In the case of umbral or antumbral eclipses (annular, total or hybrid), they can be further categorized as:

  1. Central (two limits) — The central axis of the Moon's umbral or antumbral shadow traverses Earth thereby producing a central line in the eclipse track. The umbra or antumbra falls entirely upon Earth producing a ground track with both a northern and southern limit.
  2. Central (one limit) — The central axis of the Moon's umbral or antumbral shadow traverses Earth. However, a portion of the umbra or antumbra misses Earth throughout the eclipse thereby producing a ground track with just one limit.
  3. Non-Central — The central axis of the Moon's umbral or antumbral shadow misses Earth. However, one edge of the umbra or antumbra grazes Earth thereby producing a ground track with one limit and no central line.

Using the above categories, the distribution of the 3956 annular eclipses is shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Statistics of Annular Eclipses
from –1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Annular Eclipses Number
of Eclipses
Percent
All Annular Eclipses 3956 100.0%
Central (two limits) 3827 96.7%
Central (one limit) 61 1.5%
Non-Central 68 1.7%

Examples of central annular eclipses with one limit include: 1874 Oct 10, 2003 May 31, 2044 Feb 28, and 2101 Feb 28. Some examples of non-central annular eclipses are: 1950 Mar 18, 1957 Apr 30, 2014 Apr 29, and 2043 Oct 03.

Similarly, the distribution of the 3173 total eclipses is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Statistics of Total Eclipses
from –1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Total Eclipses Number
of Eclipses
Percent
All Total Eclipses 3173 100.0%
Central (two limits) 3121 98.4%
Central (one limit) 26 0.8%
Non-Central 28 0.8%

Examples of central total eclipses with one limit include: 1494 Mar 07, 1523 Aug 11, 2185 Jul 26, and 2195 Aug 05. The most recent examples of non-central total eclipses are: 1957 Oct 23, 1967 Nov 02, 2043 Apr 09, and 2459 Jun 01.

All 569 hybrid eclipses are central with two limits. Hybrid eclipses with a single limit (both central and non-central) are exceedingly rare. An estimate of the mean frequency of non-central hybrid eclipses is one out of every 600 million eclipses or once every 250 million years [Meeus, 2002].

The central path of most hybrid eclipses begins annular, changes to total and finally reverts back to annular. This combination (ATA) occurs in 519 out of the 569 hybrid eclipses in the Five Millennium Canon of Solar Eclipses: -1999 to +3000. However, there are two other possibilities. If the vertex of the Moon's umbral shadow passes through Earth's fundamental plane during the eclipse, then the hybrid eclipse can begin as total and end as annular (TA) or it can begin as annular and end as total (AT). Table 4 shows the distribution of the three different classes of hybrid eclipses.

Table 4: Statistics of Hybrid Eclipses
from –1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Hybrid Eclipses Number
of Eclipses
Percent
All Hybrid Eclipses 569 100.0%
Hybrid (ATA) 519 92.2%
Hybrid (TA) 24 4.2%

Examples of ATA hybrid eclipses include: 1986 Oct 03, 1987 Mar 29, 2005 Apr 08, and 2023 Apr 20. Examples of the relatively rare TA hybrid eclipse are: 1564 Jun 08, 1703 Jan 17, 1825 Dec 09, and 2386 Apr 29. Finally, examples of the rare AT hybrid eclipse include: 1489 Jun 28, 1854 Nov 20, 2013 Nov 03, and 2172 Oct 17.

Footnotes

[1] The terms BCE and CE are abbreviations for "Before Common Era" and "Common Era," respectively. They are the secular equivalents to the BC and AD dating conventions. (See: Year Dating Conventions)

1.2 Distribution of Solar Eclipse Types by Century

Table 5 summarize 5000 years of eclipses by eclipse type in 100-year intervals. The number of central and non-central (in square brackets) events are given for annular and total eclipses. The number of eclipses in any one century ranges from 222 to 255 with an average of 238.0. Over the 1000-year interval 1501-2500 CE (centered on the present era), the average is 238.9 eclipses per century.

Some remarkable patterns are present in this table. There exists a cyclical variation in the number of eclipses per century with a length of a little under six centuries, giving alternating "rich" and "poor" periods [Meeus, 1997]. The 20th and 21st centuries (1901 to 2100) are poor periods, with only 228 and 224 eclipses. This cycle is also present when only central eclipses are considered.

The cycle appears to have a period of approximately 600 years with an amplitude of ~30 eclipses. This is close to a known eclipse period called the tetradia which has a period of 586.02 years. The tetradia governs the recurrence of tetrads or groups of four successive total lunar eclipses each separated by six lunations. The tetradia cycle for lunar eclipses tetrads appears to be 180 degrees out of phase with the cycle for solar eclipses. When there are many tetrads, there are fewer solar eclipses. We are currently in a tetrad rich period with recent tetrads in 2003-2004, 2014-2015 and 2032-2033.

The number of hybrid solar eclipses per century also varies cyclically with a period of approximately 17 centuries.

Table 5: Solar Eclipse Types by Century:
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Century Interval Number
of
Eclipses
Number
of
Partial
Eclipses
Number
of
Annular
Eclipses*
Number
of
Total
Eclipses*
Number
of
Hybrid
Eclipses
–1999 to –19002398470 [1]62 [0]22
–1899 to –18002539380 [0]62 [1]17
–1799 to –17002549573 [1]63 [1]21
–1699 to –16002307570 [1]60 [0]24
–1599 to –15002257865 [2]59 [0]21
–1499 to –14002267765 [4]61 [1]18
–1399 to –13002347683 [1]68 [0]6
–1299 to –12002509386 [0]64 [0]7
–1199 to –11002529389 [0]63 [0]7
–1099 to –10002387989 [2]67 [1]0
–0999 to –09002268474 [1]58 [3]6
–0899 to –08002258073 [2]64 [2]4
–0799 to –07002347988 [0]64 [0]3
–0699 to –06002539686 [1]63 [0]7
–0599 to –05002559685 [1]65 [0]8
–0499 to –04002418476 [2]62 [0]17
–0399 to –03002258362 [1]56 [0]23
–0299 to –02002268361 [1]55 [2]24
–0199 to –01002378071 [2]62 [1]21
–0099 to 00002519277 [0]64 [1]17
0001 to 01002489074 [1]58 [0]25
0101 to 02002378075 [2]63 [1]16
0201 to 03002277970 [4]69 [0]5
0301 to 04002227374 [2]65 [1]7
0401 to 05002338083 [1]67 [0]2
0501 to 06002519386 [1]65 [0]6
0601 to 07002519089 [1]67 [0]4
0701 to 08002337786 [2]66 [0]2
0801 to 09002227872 [2]62 [2]6
0901 to 10002277683 [1]65 [1]1
1001 to 11002418490 [0]61 [0]6
1101 to 12002509282 [0]61 [0]15
1201 to 13002468780 [1]60 [0]18
1301 to 14002297672 [3]54 [0]24
1401 to 15002227762 [3]60 [1]19
1501 to 16002287569 [3]62 [0]19
1601 to 17002488974 [0]60 [1]24
1701 to 18002519278 [0]62 [0]19
1801 to 19002428777 [0]63 [0]15
1901 to 20002287871 [2]68 [3]6
2001 to 21002247770 [2]67 [1]7
2101 to 22002357982 [5]65 [0]4
2201 to 23002489286 [0]67 [0]3
2301 to 24002488886 [0]66 [0]8
2401 to 25002378187 [2]65 [1]1
2501 to 26002258371 [1]63 [1]6
2601 to 27002277778 [3]64 [0]5
2701 to 28002428492 [0]63 [0]3
2801 to 29002549586 [1]63 [0]9
2901 to 30002489180 [2]64 [0]11

    * The first quantity is the number of central eclipses, while the second quantity [in square brackets] is the number of non-central eclipses.

1.3 Distribution of Solar Eclipse Types by Month

Table 6 summarizes 5000 years of eclipses by eclipse type in each month of the year. The first value in each column is the number of eclipses of a given type for the corresponding month. The second number in square brackets [] is the number of eclipses divided by the number of days in that month. This normalization allows direct comparison of eclipse frequencies in different months.

A brief examination of the values in the column Number of All Eclipses shows that eclipses are equally distributed around the year. The same holds true for partial eclipses. However, the columns for annular and total eclipses reveal something interesting. Annular eclipses are 4/3 times more likely during the period November-December-January compared to the months May-June-July. This effect is attributed to Earth's elliptical orbit. Earth currently reaches perihelion in early January and aphelion in early July. Consequently the Sun's apparent diameter varies from 1952 to 1887 arc-seconds between perihelion and aphelion. The Sun's larger apparent diameter at perihelion makes annular eclipses more frequent at that time.

The opposite argument holds true for total eclipses which are nearly 3/2 times more likely during the period May-June-July compared to the months November-December-January. In this case the Sun's smaller apparent size around aphelion increases the frequency of total eclipses at that time. Total eclipses actually outnumber annular eclipses during the season May-June-July [Meeus, 2002].

Table 6: Solar Eclipse Types by Month:
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Month Number
of
Eclipses*
Number
of
Partial
Eclipses*
Number
of
Annular
Eclipses*
Number
of
Total
Eclipses*
Number
of
Hybrid
Eclipses*
January1010 [32.6]357 [11.5]380 [12.3]222 [ 7.2]51 [ 1.6]
February919 [32.8]317 [11.3]334 [11.9]225 [ 8.0]43 [ 1.5]
March1009 [32.5]359 [11.6]319 [10.3]280 [ 9.0]51 [ 1.6]
April981 [32.7]345 [11.5]294 [ 9.8]299 [10.0]43 [ 1.4]
May1009 [32.5]353 [11.4]294 [ 9.5]313 [10.1]49 [ 1.6]
June973 [32.4]348 [11.6]279 [ 9.3]310 [10.3]36 [ 1.2]
July1008 [32.5]354 [11.4]299 [ 9.6]312 [10.1]43 [ 1.4]
August1008 [32.5]358 [11.5]308 [ 9.9]303 [ 9.8]39 [ 1.3]
September982 [32.7]354 [11.8]333 [11.1]248 [ 8.3]47 [ 1.6]
October1008 [32.5]355 [11.5]362 [11.7]230 [ 7.4]61 [ 2.0]
November977 [32.6]344 [11.5]367 [12.2]210 [ 7.0]56 [ 1.9]
December1014 [32.7]356 [11.5]387 [12.5]221 [ 7.1]50 [ 1.6]

    * The first quantity is the number of central eclipses, while the second quantity [in square brackets] is the number of non-central eclipses.

1.4 Solar Eclipse Frequency and the Calendar Year

There are 2 to 5 solar eclipses in every calendar year. Table 7 shows the distribution in the number of eclipses per year for the 5000 years covered in the Five Millennium Canon of Solar Eclipses: -1999 to +3000.

Table 7: Number of Solar Eclipses per Year
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Number
of Eclipses
per Year
Number
Years
Percent
2362572.5%
387717.5%
44739.5%
5250.5%

When two eclipses occur in one calendar year, they can be any combination of P, A, T or H (partial, annular, total or hybrid) with the one exception that they cannot both be T. Table 8 lists the frequency of each eclipse combination along with the five most recent years when the combination occurs. The table makes no distinction in the order of any two eclipses. For example, the eclipse combination PA includes all years where the order is either PA or AP.

Table 8: Two Solar Eclipses in One Year
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Eclipse
Combinations a
Number
Years
Percent Examples (Years) b
PP1774.9%…, 2004, 2007, 2022, 2025, 2040, …
PA972.7%…, 2014, 2032, 2101, 2102, 2119, …
PH190.5%…, 0227, 0245, 1909, 1986, 2050]
PT2366.5%…, 2015, 2033, 2037, 2055, 2068, …
AA2928.1%…, 1951, 1969, 2056, 2074, 2085, …
AH2396.6%…, 2005, 2013, 2023, 2031, 2049, …
AT240266.3%…, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, …
HH842.3%…, 1753, 1771, 1789, 1807, 1825]
HT792.2%…, 1843, 1894, 1912, 1930, 2910, …

    a - P = Partial, A = Annular, T = Total and H = Hybrid.
    b - When years end with a square bracket ], there are no other examples beyond the last year.

When three eclipses occur in one calendar year, there are fourteen possible combinations of P, A, T or H. Table 9 lists the frequency of each eclipse combination along with the five most recent years when each combination occurs. The table makes no distinction in the order of eclipses in any combination. For example, the eclipse combination PAT includes all years where the order is PAT, PTA, APT, ATP, TAP and TPA. The rarest combinations PHT and AAH (actually HTP and AHA, respectively) each occurred only twice in the five millennium span of this survey.

Table 9: Three Solar Eclipses in One Year
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Eclipse
Combinations a
Number
Years
Percent Recent Examples (Years) b
PPP39645.2%…, 1971, 2018, 2036, 2054, 2058, …
PPA718.1%…, 1722, 1740, 1899, 2224, 2242, …
PPH70.8%–1906,–1888,–1794,–0224, 1544, 1609, 1703
PPT748.4%…, 1834, 1852, 1928, 2130, 2271, …
PAA182.1%…, 0650, 0791, 1704, 2419, 2437, …
PAH50.6%[–1907,–0457,–0316,–0101,–0055]
PAT14516.5%…, 1992, 2019, 2084, 2149, 2225, …
PHH50.6%[–1683,–0037,–0019,–0001, 1768]
PHT20.2%[–1488, 1786]
AAH20.2%[–1944, 1489]
AAT10211.6%…, 1954, 1973, 2038, 2103, 2122, …
AHH80.9%[–484,–0400,–0139, 1144, 1228, 1339, 1405, 1666]
AHT131.5%[–1833,–1702,–1507,–0660,–0465,–0419,–0074, 0121, 1163, 1386, 1731, 1908, 2950]
ATT293.3%…, 1554, 1712, 1889, 2057, 2252, …
    a - P = Partial, A = Annular, T = Total and H = Hybrid.
    b - When years are enclosed in square brackets [], they include all examples in 5,000 years.

When four eclipses occur in one calendar year, there are seven possible combinations of eclipse types P, A, T and H. Table 10 lists the frequency of each eclipse combination along with the five most recent years when each combination occurs. The table makes no distinction in the order of eclipses in the seven combinations. The rarest combination PPAH (actually HAPP) occurred only once in the year –1748 (1749 BCE).

Table 10: Four Solar Eclipses in One Year
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Eclipse
Combinations a
Number
Years
Percent Recent Examples (Years) b
PPPP32769.1%…, 2000, 2011, 2029, 2047, 2065, …
PPPA7916.7%…, 1758, 1917, 2141, 2159, 2177, …
PPPH71.5%[–1925,–1870,–0120, 1573, 1591, 1685, 1750]
PPPT418.7%…, 1693, 1870, 2076, 2094, 2112, …
PPAA30.6%[–1209,–1032, 0596]
PPAH10.2%[–1748]
PPAT153.2%[–1795,–1162,–0688,–0641,–0576,–0511,–0446, 0010, 0075, 0661, 1182, 1880, 2195, 2782, 2912]
    a - P = Partial, A = Annular, T = Total and H = Hybrid.
    b - When years are enclosed in square brackets [], they include all examples in 5,000 years.

The maximum number of five solar eclipses in one calendar year is quite rare. Over the 5000-year span of the Five Millennium Canon there are only 25 years containing five solar eclipses. They occur in three possible combinations of eclipse types where four out of the five eclipses are always of type P. The first eclipse of such a quintet always occurs in the first half of January while the last eclipse falls in the latter half of December. Table 11 lists all 25 years containing five eclipses along with their eclipse combinations and frequencies. The rarest combination PPPPH occurred only once in year –1852 (1853 BCE). Once again, the table makes no distinction in the order of eclipses in any combination.

Table 11: Five Solar Eclipses in One Year
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Eclipse
Combinations a
Number
Years
Percent Recent Examples (Years) b
PPPPA1872.0%–1805,–1787,–1675,–1089,–0568,–0503,–0373, 0018, 0148, 0604, 0734, 1255, 1805, 1935, 2206, 2709, 2839, 2904
PPPPH14.0%–1852
PPPPT624.0%–1740,–1154,–0438, 0083, 0669, 2774
    a - P = Partial, A = Annular, T = Total and H = Hybrid.

1.5 Extremes in Eclipse Magnitude – Partial Eclipses

Eclipse magnitude is the fraction of the Sun's diameter covered by the Moon. It reaches a maximum at greatest eclipse. The Five Millennium Canon reveals some interesting cases involving extreme values of the eclipse magnitude.

Thirteen partial eclipses have a maximum magnitude less than 0.005 (Table 12). These events are all the first or last members in a Saros series. The smallest magnitude was the partial of –1838 Apr 04 with a magnitude of just 0.00002.

Table 12: Partial Eclipses with Magnitude 0.005 or Less
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
–1838 Apr 04–101.56150.00002
–1512 Apr 29431.53860.0041
–0756 Mar 1266–1.54170.0047
0662 Jun 211151.53770.0030
0929 Jul 09801.52670.0049
1175 Oct 1691–1.56900.0019
1512 Apr 16140–1.52890.0003
1639 Jan 041451.56500.0009
1935 Jan 05111–1.53810.0013
2883 Aug 23188–1.55240.0010
2893 Dec 291461.57060.0028
2904 Jun 051421.54280.0040
2995 Aug 17190–1.55420.0036

Table 13 lists the eight partial eclipses having a maximum magnitude greater than 0.995. The greatest partial eclipse occurred on –1577 Mar 30 with a maximum magnitude of 0.9998.

Table 13: Partial Eclipses with Magnitude 0.995 or More
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
–1585 Mar 28331.01370.9960
–1577 Mar 3041.01090.9998
–0944 Sep 1429–1.00560.9987
–0927 Nov 04571.00050.9990
–0018 Jun 10561.01540.9954
0257 Aug 26681.00600.9969
0654 May 22106–1.01310.9990
1750 Jul 03142–0.99850.9956

1.6 Extremes in Eclipse Magnitude – Annular Eclipses

Sixteen annular eclipses have a maximum magnitude (at greatest eclipse) less than or equal to 0.910 (Table 14). Eleven of these events are central, three are central with one limit and two are non-central (with one limit). The annular eclipses with the smallest magnitude (at greatest eclipse) occurred on –1682 Nov 12 and 1601 Dec 24 and had a magnitude of just 0.9078.

Table 14: Annular Eclipses with Magnitude 0.910 or Less
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central
Duration
–1718 Oct 2160.91950.909108m 18s
–1700 Oct 3160.92540.908108m 44s
–1682 Nov 1260.92950.907809m 08s
–1664 Nov 2260.93230.908309m 26s
–1646 Dec 0360.93530.909509m 36s
–0984 Nov 04 a27–1.02340.9099
0123 Nov 06 b640.97830.909808m 20s
0141 Nov 16 b640.98540.908908m 31s
0159 Nov 27 b640.99080.908708m 34s
0177 Dec 08640.99440.909308m 28s
1565 Nov 221350.95640.909209m 37s
1583 Dec 141350.94710.908310m 03s
1601 Dec 241350.94020.907810m 14s
1620 Jan 041350.93210.908110m 13s
1638 Jan 151350.92420.909010m 00s
2485 Dec 07 a1401.02420.9100-
    a - Non-central annular eclipse (with one limit).
    b - Central annular eclipse with one limit.

Seventeen annular eclipses have a maximum magnitude (at greatest eclipse) greater than or equal to 0.9995 (Table 15). All of these events have central durations lasting 3 seconds or less. The annular eclipse with the largest magnitude (at greatest eclipse) occurs on 2931 Dec 30 with a magnitude of 0.99998.

Table 15: Annular Eclipses with Magnitude 0.9995 or More
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central
Duration
–1800 Apr 03100.17780.999700m 02s
–1734 Sep 1826–0.51050.999500m 03s
–1725 Mar 1720.81050.999700m 01s
–1624 Oct 0280.93770.999500m 02s
–1590 Jun 2021–0.03760.999700m 02s
–1482 Feb 27160.39920.999700m 02s
–1326 Apr 14270.04090.999600m 02s
–0124 Sep 07810.76420.999900m 00s
1087 Aug 011110.16440.999600m 02s
1384 Aug 171250.53540.999900m 01s
1704 Nov 271180.67160.999900m 01s
1822 Feb 211370.69140.999600m 02s
1858 Mar 151370.64610.999600m 02s
1876 Mar 251370.61420.999900m 01s
1948 May 091370.41330.999900m 00s
2862 Sep 151580.59560.999900m 01s
2931 Dec 301660.15110.9999800m 00s

1.7 Extremes in Eclipse Magnitude – Total Eclipses

Nineteen total eclipses have a maximum magnitude less than or equal to 1.0075 (Table 16). Six of these eclipses are central while the remaining thirteen are non-central. The smallest magnitude was the total eclipse of –0839 Jul 26 with a magnitude of just 1.0002.

Table 16: Total Eclipses with Magnitude 1.0075 or Less
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central
Duration
–1038 Apr 09 a221.00231.0034
–0915 Feb 28 b25–1.00121.0004
–0909 Nov 15 a570.99761.0050
–0905 Mar 10 b54–1.00531.0072
–0839 Jul 26 a321.00951.0002
–0829 Aug 05 a610.99721.0064
–0159 Jul 08 b53–1.00961.0051
0854 Feb 0183–0.95821.006500m 22s
0861 Sep 08 b87–1.00321.0053
0865 Jan 01840.95181.007300m 36s
0883 Jan 12840.96091.005700m 27s
0890 Feb 23 b83–1.00051.0005
0901 Jan 23840.97311.004200m 19s
0919 Feb 03840.99091.002000m 09s
0994 Aug 09 a1190.99851.0017
1957 Oct 23 b123–1.00221.0013
2459 Jun 01 b164–1.00971.0038
2518 Mar 121380.92001.007100m 31s
2542 Dec 08 b170–0.99751.0072
    a - Non-central total eclipse at high northern latitudes.
    b - Non-central total eclipse at high southern latitudes.

Sixteen total eclipses have a maximum magnitude greater than or equal to 1.080. Their central durations all exceed six minutes with nearly half exceeding seven minutes. All take place during the period of the year when Earth is near aphelion (May-July), resulting in a smaller than normal diameter of the solar disk. The total eclipse with the largest magnitude (1.0813) occurred on 0504 May 29. The total eclipse with the longest duration of totality occurs on 2186 Jul 16 with a magnitude of 1.0805. The sixteen eclipses in Table 17 belong to just five Saros series.

Table 17: Total Eclipses with Magnitude 1.080 or More
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central
Duration
–1337 May 14260.14871.080106m 51s
–1319 May 25260.22361.080706m 41s
–1301 Jun 05260.29821.080506m 25s
–1160 May 0729–0.29901.080606m 45s
–1142 May 1829–0.37421.080906m 56s
–1124 May 2829–0.44901.080407m 03s
0327 Jun 0681–0.04131.081007m 03s
0345 Jun 1681–0.11621.081107m 17s
0363 Jun 2781–0.18991.080407m 24s
0486 May 19840.11931.080606m 54s
0504 May 29840.19271.081306m 44s
0522 Jun 10840.26751.081206m 28s
0540 Jun 20840.34141.080106m 07s
2150 Jun 25139–0.09101.080207m 14s
2168 Jul 05139–0.16601.080707m 26s
2186 Jul 16139–0.23961.080507m 29s

1.8 Extremes in Eclipse Magnitude – Hybrid Eclipses

Fourteen hybrid eclipses have a maximum magnitude (at greatest eclipse) less than or equal to 1.00025. All of these events are central with a central duration of totality of 1 second or less.

Table 18: Hybrid Eclipses with Magnitude 1.00025 or Less
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central
Duration
–1747 Nov 105–0.74061.000100m 00s
–1716 Sep 2826–0.49271.000200m 01s
–1641 Mar 1713–0.27721.000200m 01s
–0819 Jan 18470.30471.000100m 00s
–0097 Mar 1757–0.55391.000100m 00s
0121 Dec 2782–0.61961.000200m 01s
0403 Nov 0188–0.19681.000100m 01s
1339 Jul 071060.64511.000200m 01s
1612 Nov 22136–0.76911.000200m 01s
1627 Aug 111390.94011.000100m 00s
1702 Jul 241310.31601.000100m 01s
1804 Feb 111370.70531.000000m 00s
1894 Apr 061370.57401.000100m 01s
1986 Oct 031240.99311.000000m 00s

Seven hybrid eclipses have a maximum magnitude (at greatest eclipse) equal to 1.0170 or more. All of these events are central with a duration of totality of 1 minute 34 seconds or more.

Table 19: Hybrid Eclipses with Magnitude 1.0170 or More
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central
Duration
–0437 Dec 17540.12861.017301m 45s
–0100 May 1765–0.19121.017001m 44s
0508 Sep 11910.08261.017301m 45s
1199 Jan 281080.00331.017401m 45s
1228 Jan 08109–0.00681.017601m 40s
1564 Jun 081200.12531.017401m 44s
2172 Oct 17146–0.14841.017401m 34s

1.9 Greatest Central Duration – Annular Eclipses

Ten annular eclipses have a central duration (i.e., central line duration at greatest eclipse) of twelve minutes or more. There are no cases between the years 1974 and 3000.

Table 20: Annular Eclipses with Central Duration of 12 Minutes or More
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central Line
Duration
–1655 Dec 12250.62070.914712m 07s
–0195 Dec 11580.49710.915312m 04s
–0177 Dec 22580.50300.916512m 08s
0132 Nov 25830.56910.914412m 16s
0150 Dec 07830.56300.914712m 23s
0168 Dec 17830.55790.915612m 14s
1628 Dec 251160.62650.915312m 02s
1937 Dec 021410.43890.918412m 00s
1955 Dec 141410.42660.917612m 09s
1973 Dec 241410.41710.917412m 02s

1.10 Greatest Central Duration – Total Eclipses

Forty-four total eclipses have a central duration (i.e., central line duration at greatest eclipse) of 7 minutes or more. These eclipses all take place during the period of the year when Earth is near the aphelion of its orbit (June-July), resulting in a smaller than normal diameter of the solar disk. The total eclipse with the longest duration of totality occurs on 2186 Jul 16. Its central duration of 7 minutes 29 seconds is very close to the theoretical maximum of 7 minutes 32.1 seconds during that epoch. All 44 eclipses belong to just 12 Saros series. The eclipses of 1937, 1955 and 1973 all belong to Saros 136. This is the same Saros producing the 6+ minute eclipses in 1991, 2009 and 2027.

Table 21: Total Eclipses with Central Duration of 7 Minutes or More
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central Line
Duration
–1460 Jun 2223–0.2261.07807m 04s
–1442 Jul 0323–0.2931.07607m 05s
–1124 May 2829–0.4491.08007m 03s
–1106 Jun 0929–0.5241.07907m 04s
–0779 May 2454–0.5481.07907m 12s
–0761 Jun 0554–0.4741.08007m 25s
–0743 Jun 1554–0.4001.07907m 28s
–0725 Jun 2654–0.3291.07807m 18s
–0707 Jul 0754–0.2611.07507m 00s
–0443 Apr 3060–0.3191.07707m 01s
–0425 May 1260–0.2471.07807m 12s
–0407 May 2260–0.1731.07807m 13s
–0389 Jun 0260–0.0981.07707m 04s
0114 May 2278–0.2681.07507m 06s
0132 Jun 0178–0.1931.07707m 14s
0150 Jun 1278–0.1191.07907m 13s
0168 Jun 2378–0.0441.07907m 03s
0327 Jun 0681–0.0411.08107m 03s
0345 Jun 1681–0.1161.08107m 17s
0363 Jun 2781–0.1901.08007m 24s
0381 Jul 0881–0.2611.07907m 22s
0399 Jul 1981–0.3291.07607m 11s
0681 May 2387–0.3541.08007m 10s
0699 Jun 0387–0.4291.07907m 17s
0717 Jun 1387–0.5031.07807m 15s
0735 Jun 2587–0.5781.07607m 02s
1044 May 29112–0.5531.07707m 12s
1062 Jun 09112–0.4791.07807m 20s
1080 Jun 20112–0.4051.07807m 18s
1098 Jul 01112–0.3321.07707m 05s
1937 Jun 08136–0.2251.07507m 04s
1955 Jun 20136–0.1531.07807m 08s
1973 Jun 30136–0.0791.07907m 04s
2150 Jun 25139–0.0911.08007m 14s
2168 Jul 05139–0.1661.08107m 26s
2186 Jul 16139–0.2401.08007m 29s
2204 Jul 27139–0.3131.07907m 22s
2222 Aug 08139–0.3841.07707m 06s
2504 Jun 14145–0.4281.07707m 10s
2522 Jun 25145–0.4991.07707m 12s
2540 Jul 05145–0.5721.07607m 04s
2867 Jun 23170–0.4621.07707m 10s
2885 Jul 03170–0.3911.07807m 11s
2903 Jul 16170–0.3181.07807m 04s

1.11 Greatest Central Duration – Hybrid Eclipses

Ten hybrid eclipses have a central duration (i.e., central line duration at greatest eclipse) equal to 1 minute 40 seconds or more.

Table 22: Hybrid Eclipses with Central Duration 1m 40s or More
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central Line
Duration
–1297 Sep 17330.06741.016801m 40s
–0979 Aug 1339–0.23871.016801m 48s
–0437 Dec 17540.12861.017301m 45s
–0100 May 1765–0.19121.017001m 44s
0508 Sep 11910.08261.017301m 45s
1199 Jan 281080.00331.017401m 45s
1228 Jan 08109–0.00681.017601m 40s
1350 Nov 301120.22271.016601m 42s
1423 Jul 08117–0.11581.016101m 45s
1564 Jun 081200.12531.017401m 44s

1.12 Theoretical Maximum Duration of Annularity

The theoretical maximum duration of an annular solar eclipse slowly varies due to long term secular changes in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit and the longitude of its perihelion. Although the maximum theoretical duration differs between the ascending and descending nodes, the durations are equal in the year +1246 because the Sun's perihelion then coincides with longitude 270°.

Table 23 lists the maximum duration theoretically possible over the period –2000 to +7000 [Meeus, 2007]. The values here are 0.2 seconds smaller than those in Meeus due to the use of a slightly larger value for the Moon's radius k (Mean Lunar Radius).

Table 23: Theoretical Maximum Duration of Annularity
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Year Duration at
Ascending Node
Duration at
Descending Node
–200012m 16.8s11m 40.9s
–100012m 30.2s12m 04.8s
000012m 35.5s12m 21.3s
+100012m 32.3s12m 29.5s
+200012m 20.7s12m 29.2s
+300012m 01.4s12m 20.6s
+400011m 35.6s12m 04.6s
+500011m 04.9s11m 42.4s
+600010m 31.0s11m 15.9s
+700010m 33.1s11m 15.7s

The absolute maximum of 12 minutes 35.6 seconds occurred at the Moon's ascending node about the year +125. An inflexion point occurs between years +6000 and +7000, when the maximum possible durations increase once again.

All calculations in the Five Millennium Canon use the same mean lunar radius "k" for both annular and total eclipses (Mean Lunar Radius). Consequently, the annular durations are extended several seconds since they include the appearance of Baily's beads at the start and end of the antumbral phase.

1.13 Theoretical Maximum Duration of Totality

The theoretical maximum duration of a total solar eclipse for a point on Earth’s surface slowly varies with time. This effect is due to long term secular changes in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit and the longitude of its perihelion. That eccentricity is now 0.01671, but at some epochs in the distant past or future the orbit was (will be) almost exactly circular, and at other times the eccentricity can be as large as 0.06.

Table 24 lists the maximum duration theoretically possible from –2000 to +7000 [Meeus 2003]. The values here are 0.1 to 0.2 seconds larger than those in Meeus due to the use of a slightly larger value for the Moon's radius k (Mean Lunar Radius).

Table 24: Theoretical Maximum Duration of Totality
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Year Duration at
Ascending Node
Duration at
Descending Node
–20007m 07.4s7m 29.8s
–10007m 19.1s7m 34.6s
00007m 27.4s7m 36.0s
+10007m 31.9s7m 33.6s
+20007m 32.3s7m 27.1s
+30007m 28.8s7m 17.1s
+40007m 22.1s7m 04.0s
+50007m 12.9s6m 48.7s
+60007m 03.3s6m 32.5s
+70007m 01.9s6m 32.8s

The absolute maximum of 7 minutes 36.1 seconds occurred at the Moon's descending node about the year –120. Prior to –2000 there must have been epochs when the maximum possible duration was even larger due to an even greater value of the eccentricity of Earth's orbit.

1.14 Solar Eclipse Duos

A duo is a pair of eclipses separated by one lunation (synodic month). Of the 11,898 eclipses in the Five Millennium Canon, 1361 eclipses (11.4%) belong to a duo. In most cases, both eclipses in a duo are partial eclipses. However there are 14 instances where one eclipse is partial and the other is total. The dates and combinations are listed in Table 25.

Table 25: Solar Eclipse Duos
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Dates
(Dynamical Time)
Eclipse
Combinations
–1859 May-JunTP
–1718 Apr-MayTP
–1310 May-JunPT
–1169 Apr-MayPT
–1028 Mar-AprPT
–0575 May-JunTP
–0434 Apr-MayTP
–0159 Jul-AugTP
–0026 May-JunPT
1248 May-JunTP
1928 May-JunTP
2195 Jul-AugPT
2459 May-JunPT
2912 Jul-AugTP

1.15 Solar Eclipse Duos in One Calendar Month

There are 43 instances where both members of an eclipse duo occur in one calendar month. In all cases, both eclipses in the duos are partial. The year and month of each occurrence appears in Table 26.

Table 26: Solar Eclipse Duos in One Calendar Month
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
–1957 Mar–1035 Aug–0416 May 0629 Mar 2206 Dec
–1805 Jan–1024 Jul 0007 Aug 1063 May 2261 Jan
–1610 Jul–1013 Jun 0018 Jul 1150 Mar 2282 Nov
–1534 Jun–0688 Dec 0097 Apr 1215 Mar 2304 Sep
–1523 May–0677 Nov 0463 Aug 1631 May 2380 Aug
–1447 Apr–0601 Oct 0528 Aug 1696 May 2684 Oct
–1209 Dec–0590 Sep 0539 Jul 1805 Jan 2785 May
–1122 Oct–0514 Aug 0542 May 1880 Dec
–1111 Sep–0503 Jul 0618 Apr 2000 Jul

1.16 January–March Solar Eclipse Duos

The mean length of one synodic month is 29.5306 days (2000). Since this is longer than the month of February, it is possible to have one member of an eclipse duo in January followed by the second in March. There are four instances of such a rare January/March duo in the Five Millennium Canon: –1881, –1295, 1291 and 1794. In all cases, both eclipses in the duos are partial.

1.17 Solar Eclipses on February 29

There are nine instances of a solar eclipse occurring on February 29. Five eclipses are partial, two are annular and two are total. A list of eclipses on February 29 with physical parameters appears in Table 27.

Table 27: Solar Eclipses on February 29
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Date
(Dynamical Time)
Type Saros Gamma Eclipse
Magnitude
Central Line
Duration
–1436 Feb 29P7–1.05860.9059
–0896 Feb 29T35–0.30681.065205m 04s
–0356 Feb 29T630.43861.062805m 11s
0108 Feb 29P51–1.56250.0082
0184 Feb 29P911.16840.6947
0648 Feb 29A79–0.77220.925706m 44s
1188 Feb 29A1070.02920.929408m 14s
2416 Feb 29P127–1.48650.1279
2872 Feb 29P1441.33150.3864

1.18 Eclipse Seasons

The 5.1° inclination of the lunar orbit around Earth means that the Moon’s orbit crosses the ecliptic at two points or nodes. If Full Moon takes place within about 16° of a node [2], then a lunar eclipse will be visible from a portion of Earth.

The Sun makes one complete circuit of the ecliptic in 365.24 days, so its average angular velocity is 0.99° per day. At this rate, it takes 34.5 days for the Sun to cross the 34° wide eclipse zone centered on each node. Because the Moon’s orbit with respect to the Sun has a mean duration of 29.53 days, there will always be one, and possibly two, lunar eclipses during each 34.5-day interval when the Sun (and Earth’s shadows) pass through the nodal eclipse zones. These time periods are called eclipse seasons.

The mid-point of each eclipse season is separated by 173.3 days because this is the mean time for the Sun to travel from one node to the next. The period is a little less than half a calendar year because the lunar nodes slowly regress westward by 19.3° per year.

Footnotes

[2] The actual value ranges from 15.2° to 16.8° because of the eccentricity of the Moon's and Earth's orbits. If an eclipse occurs within °9.5° to 10.9° of a node, the eclipse will be central (annular, hybrid, or total).

1.19 Quincena

The mean time interval between New Moon and Full Moon is 14.77 days. This is less than half the duration of an eclipse season. As a consequence, the same Sun–node alignment geometry responsible for producing a solar eclipse always results in a complementary lunar eclipse within a fortnight. The lunar eclipse may either preceed or succeed the solar eclipse. In either case, the pair of eclipses are referred to here as a quincena.

The QLE (Quincena Lunar Eclipse parameter) identifies the type of the lunar eclipse and whether it preceeds or succeeds a particular solar eclipse. There are three types of lunar eclipses:

  1. n = penumbral lunar eclipse (Moon partly or completely within Earth’s penumbral shadow)
  2. p = partial lunar eclipse (Moon partly within Earth’s umbral shadow)
  3. t = total lunar eclipse (Moon completely within Earth’s umbral shadow)

The QLE is a two character string consisting of one or more of the above lunar eclipse types. The first character in the QLE identifies a lunar eclipse preceding a solar eclipse while the second character identifies a lunar eclipse succeeding a solar eclipse. In most instances, one of the two characters is “-” indicating a single lunar eclipse either precedes or succeeds the solar eclipse. On rare occassions, a double quincena occurs in which a solar eclipse is both preceded and succeeded by lunar eclipses.

1.20 Quincena Combinations with Total Solar Eclipses

A total solar eclipse can be preceded or succeeded by a total lunar eclipse (8.8%), a partial lunar eclipse (49.8%), or a penumbral lunar eclipse (28.2%). Double quincenas (a solar eclipse is both preceded and succeeded by a lunar eclipse) occur with a frequency of 13.1% and always consist of two penumbral lunar eclipses. A detailed list of total solar eclipse and quincena lunar eclipse combinations appears in Table 28.

Table 28: Quincena Combinations with Total Solar Eclipses
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Quincena
Lunar Eclipse
QLE Number Percent Recent Examples (Years)
– total–t1474.6%…, 1957, 1968, 2015, 2033, 2044,…
total –t–1334.2%…, 1985, 2003, 2043, 2061, 2072,…
– partial–p80125.2%…, 2001, 2008, 2019, 2026, 2037,…
partial –p–78224.6%…, 1992, 1999, 2010, 2017, 2021,…
– penumbral–n43213.6%…, 1994, 1998, 2012, 2016, 2030,…
penumbral –n–46214.6%…, 2002, 2006, 2020, 2024, 2038,…
penumbral – penumbralnn41613.1%…, 1973, 1991, 2009, 2027, 2096,…

1.21 Quincena Combinations with Annular Solar Eclipses

An annular solar eclipse can be preceded or succeeded by a total lunar eclipse (9.0%), a partial lunar eclipse (57.4%), or a penumbral lunar eclipse (8.5%). Double quincenas consisting of two penumbral lunar eclipses (23.8%) are common, but penumbral-partial combinations are rare (1.3%). A list of annular solar eclipse and quincena lunar eclipse combinations is found in Table 29.

Table 29: Quincena Combinations with Annular Solar Eclipses
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Quincena
Lunar Eclipse
QLE Number Percent Recent Examples (Years)
– total–t 1784.5%…, 1990, 2008, 2026, 2044, 2102,…
total –t– 1784.5%…, 1891, 2003, 2014, 2021, 2032,…
– partial–p114729.0%…, 1994, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2030,…
partial –p–112228.4%…, 1995, 2006, 2010, 2024, 2028,…
– penumbral–n 1604.0%…, 1991, 2001, 2009, 2016, 2019,…
penumbral –n– 1794.5%…, 1981, 1999, 2017, 2035, 2042,…
partial - penumbralpn 270.7%…, 1608, 1749, 2013, 2147, 2288,…
penumbral - partialnp 240.6%…, 1694, 1835, 1958, 2819, 2960]
penumbral - penumbralnn 94123.8%…, 1998, 2002, 2020, 2031, 2038,…

1.22 Quincena Combinations with Hybrid Solar Eclipses

A hybrid solar eclipse can be preceded or succeeded by a total lunar eclipse (3.0%), a partial lunar eclipse (51.1%), or a penumbral lunar eclipse (24.9%). Double quincenas consisting of two penumbral lunar eclipses (20.9%) are also fairly common. A complete list of hybrid solar eclipse and quincena lunar eclipse combinations appears in Table 30.

Table 30: Quincena Combinations with Hybrid Solar Eclipses
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Quincena
Lunar Eclipse
QLE Number Percent Recent Examples (Years)
– total–t 50.9%…,-1989, -1848, -1642, 163, 1986]
total –t– 122.1%…, 1627, 1645, 1768, 1909, 2050]
– partial–p12421.8%…, 1827, 1845, 2164, 2182, 2323,…
partial –p–16729.3%…, 1912, 1930, 2209, 2350, 2368,…
– penumbral–n 8514.9%…, 1987, 2005, 2023, 2385, 2508,…
penumbral –n– 5710.0%…, 1702, 1908, 2013, 2031, 2049,…
penumbral - penumbralnn11920.9%…, 1843, 1846, 2172, 2190, 2208,…

1.23 Quincena Combinations with Partial Solar Eclipse

A partial solar eclipse is almost always preceded or succeeded by a total lunar eclipse (99.6%). On very rare occasions (0.3%), a partial lunar eclipse occurs before a partial solar eclipse. However, there are no instances of a partial lunar eclipse following a partial solar eclipse. No double quincenas occur with partial solar eclipses. A list of partial solar eclipse and quincena lunar eclipse combinations is found in Table 31.

Table 31: Quincena Combinations with Partial Solar Eclipses
–1999 to +3000 (2000 BCE to 3000 CE)
Quincena
Lunar Eclipse
QLE Number Percent Recent Examples (Years)
– total–t210250.0%…, 2000, 2004, 2011, 2015, 2018,…
total –t–208549.6%…, 2000, 2007, 2011, 2014, 2018,…
partial –p–130.3%…, -753, -196, 2086, 2607, 2625]

Acknowledgments

The information presented on this web page is based on material originally published in Five Millennium Canon of Solar Eclipses: -1999 to +3000 and Five Millennium Catalog of Solar Eclipses: -1999 to +3000. All eclipse calculations are by Fred Espenak, and he assumes full responsibility for their accuracy.

Permission is freely granted to reproduce this data when accompanied by an acknowledgment:

"Eclipse Predictions by Fred Espenak and Jean Meeus, www.EclipseWise.com"

The use of diagrams and maps is permitted provided that they are NOT altered (except for re-sizing) and the embedded credit line is NOT removed or covered.

References

Espenak, F., and Meeus, J., Five Millennium Canon of Solar Eclipses: -1999 to +3000, Astropixels Publishing, Portal, AZ (2022).

Espenak, F., and Meeus, J., Five Millennium Catalog of Solar Eclipses: -1999 to +3000, Astropixels Publishing, Portal, AZ (2022).

Gingerich, O., (Translator), Canon of Eclipses, Dover Publications, New York (1962) (from the original T.R. von Oppolzer, book, Canon der Finsternisse, Wien, [1887]).

Meeus, J., Mathematical Astronomy Morsels, Willmann-Bell, pp. 56–62 (1997).

Meeus, J., Mathematical Astronomy Morsels, Willmann-Bell, pp. 120–126 (2002a).

Meeus, J., Mathematical Astronomy Morsels, Willmann-Bell, pp. 70–72 (2002b).

Meeus, J., “The maximum possible duration of a total solar eclipse,” J. Br. Astron. Assoc., 113(6) (2003).

Meeus, J., Mathematical Astronomy Morsels III, Willmann-Bell, pp. 109-111, (2004).

Meeus, J., Mathematical Astronomy Morsels IV, Willmann-Bell, pp. 44–45, (2007).

Meeus, J., Grosjean, C.C., and Vanderleen, W., Canon of Solar Eclipses, Pergamon Press, Oxford, United Kingdom (1966).

van den Bergh, G., Periodicity and Variation of Solar (and Lunar) Eclipses, Tjeenk Willink, and Haarlem, Netherlands (1955).

von Oppolzer, T.R., Canon der Finsternisse, Wien, (1887).

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